Instruction
1. Write a 200-300-word response to the following discussion question. Please, make sure your answer reflects your own words and critical thinking.
A mayoral election race is tightly contested. In a random sample of 1,100 likely voters, 572 said they were planning to vote for the current mayor. Based on this sample, what is your initial hunch? Would you claim with 95% confidence that the mayor will win a majority of the votes? Explain.
(NOTES: The methodology for collecting the Random Sample here is a standard random sample of registered voters. A "hunch" would typically be used to develop a research question. Confidence is not your level of confidence of the data, or the voters attitudes, it is based on the statistical confidence interval)
2 Provide feedback for the following:(minimum 60-75 words)
.For the current mayor to win the election that is tightly contested, the mayor should get more than 50% of the total vote. From the random samples, 1100*0.50=550 votes. Hence, the current mayor should get at least 550 votes to win this mayoral election. Since there are 572 of the 1100 voters were planning to vote for the current mayor, the initial hunch is that the mayor will win this mayoral election.
Now, the problem of using only the point estimate which is 0.52 to predict if the current mayor will win the mayoral election is that it is rarely equal to the exact proportion of this population. To make a more meaningful estimate, we will generate a confidence interval of these voters. Confidence interval is range of values within which the analyst can declare, with some confidence, the population parameter lies
3. Write a 200-300-word response to the following discussion question. Please, make sure your answer reflects your own words and critical thinking.
Why do so many of life’s events share the same characteristics as the central limit theorem? Why are estimations and confidence intervals important? When might systematic sampling be biased? Explain. What roles do confidence intervals and estimation play in the selection of sample size?
4. Summarize all that you have learned from the above (minimum 100 words)